New orders were down 7% in August 2024 compared to August 2023, which follows the 5% year over year decline last month. However, new orders were up 12% compared to the prior month of July 2024. Year to date through August 2024, new orders are still up 1% compared to

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in October to 108.7 (1985=100), up from 99.2 in September.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased by 14.2 points to 138.0.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased by 6.3 points to 89.1, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.”

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes and new cars continued to increase. When asked about plans to buy moredurable goodsorservicesover the next six months, consumers continued to express a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods. Consumer buying plans for big-ticket appliances were mixed and buying plans for electronics were slightly down.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 1.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.5% (down from 3.98 million in September 2023).

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 5.1% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000 units, down 14.0% from one year ago (430,000 units). The median existing condo price was $361,600 in September, up 2.2% from the previous year ($353,900).

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.44% as of October 17. That’s up from 6.32% one week ago but down from 7.63% one year ago.

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1% above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3% above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000.

Compared to August 2023 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were up 9.8% overall with sales also up 18.0% in the South and 26.6% in the Midwest, but down 33.3% in the Northeast and 6.7% in the West.

The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.

Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.4% in September 2024 from August 2024 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and down 2.2% from September 2023. Sales were also down 5.1% for year to date September 2024 compared to the same period for 2023 on an unadjusted basis.

It was good to see old friends and new in sunny High Point this last week for the Fall Furniture Market. While the Market Authority reported that traffic was down slightly, the mood of market seemed to be largely positive, though the U.S. elections and potential for tariffs were also on many people’s minds.

Generally speaking, of the companies we visited with, those with more significant designer customer bases seem to be faring better at the moment as the retail business continues to be challenging.

Certain economic factors do seem to be slowly inching in the right direction, though most people we spoke to, as well as thought leaders in the industry, believe that an increase in housing inventory and activity will be needed for the industry as a whole to fully recover.

However, this is all nothing new for the industry and most companies have figured out how to survive and even thrive in the current environment as they await a return to normalcy, hopefully by the middle of 2025.